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Oman will feel the heat of global warming | Oman weather

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Muscat: Forecasts indicate a maximum temperature increase of 4 ° C in the interior and northern governorates of the Sultanate, including Musandam. This is the result of global warming on the climate of the Sultanate.

“The climate of the Sultanate has undergone obvious changes over the past three decades, which is consistent with the findings of recent studies on the Arabian Peninsula and the neighboring region. warming tendency. The highest trends are found in Khasab, Sohar, Seeq, Seeb, Sur and in the northern regions; while the lowest warming trends have been recorded along the southeast coast, “said Prof Yaseen Abdul-Rahman Al Sharaabi, director of the Center for Environmental Studies and Research at Sultan Qaboos University, said .

Prof Al Sharaabi added: “Average annual temperatures in the Sultanate have increased by about 0.4 degrees per decade. This increase shows a large variation across the country ranging from 0.1 ° C per decade around Salalah to about 1.1 ° C per decade, for every decade all over the Sur. There is also clear evidence that the highest temperatures in the Sultanate – the maximum and minimum – have increased over the past decades. “

“Statistical studies show that the evolution of the average maximum temperature varies from -0.6 ° C per decade around Sohar to about 1.2 ° C per decade, in the vicinity of Khasab. The same studies also show that the change in annual minimum temperature ranges from 0.2 ° C per decade around Seeq to around 1.7 ° C per decade in the vicinity of Sur, ”he explained.

In general, the average minimum temperature has increased in all regions of the Sultanate governorates by about 0.5 ° C per decade. There are also other notable trends which include a marked increase in maximum temperature at night in all parts of the country, while cases of high temperatures during the day were clearer in the northern Sultanate.

Precipitation patterns have changed over the past three decades, but the changes have been much less severe than the changes in temperature. There is a large variation in precipitation from year to year and has experienced large fluctuations during the 80s and 90s. Finally, precipitation, in general, experienced a decrease during the period between 1980 and 2013 .

Future temperatures

Professor Al Sharaabi indicates that: “The future climate of the Sultanate will be considerably different from its historical climate. By the middle of the 21st century, annual averages of global maximum temperatures will increase significantly, regardless of the future climate pathway used. In this case, maximum temperatures are expected to increase by at least 2 ° C along the southern coastal regions. The most unfavorable forecast points to a maximum temperature increase of 4 ° C in the interior and northern governorates, including Musandam.

The eastern and southeastern coastal regions are expected to experience the least change in expected maximum temperatures. The maps also show that the maximum temperature will increase from coastal regions in the east to interior regions in the west across the country and across all representative concentration pathways. He continues: “So, towards the end of the 21st century, annual maximum temperatures will continue to change dramatically. In a worst-case scenario, maximum temperatures are expected to rise 1 ° C above their mid-21st century counterparts, exceeding historical levels. up to 5 ° C, for all interior regions of the Sultanate, as well as certain coastal areas in the northern parts of the Arabian Sea and the western parts of the Arabian Sea. “

In best-case scenarios, maximum temperatures are not expected to rise by the end of the 21st century in most areas of the Sultanate. Rather, parts of the Al Hajar Mountains in the far north and near Ramlet Umm Al Hait in western Dhofar Governorate are expected to experience a drop in temperatures of up to 0.5 degrees Celsius. By the middle of the 21st century, annual averages of global minimum temperatures will experience a significant increase regardless of the future climate trajectory used, and in the best-case scenario, an increase in minimum temperatures of at least 2 ° C is expected. for the whole south. coastal regions along the Arabian Sea, as well as the southern border of the Arabian Sea.

In the worst case, expectations point to an increase in minimum temperatures of 4.5 ° C in the interior and northernmost regions of the Sultanate at Musandam. It is important to note that all coastal areas of the Sultanate are expected to experience an increase in minimum temperatures, of at least 2.5 ° C. Expectations indicate that annual minimum temperatures will continue to change dramatically until the end of the 21st century.

In a worst-case scenario, minimum temperatures are expected to rise 1.5 ° C above mid-21st century levels – a total of 5.5 ° C above historical levels – in the northernmost regions of the United States. Hajar Mountains. Most areas of the Sultanate will experience an increase in minimum temperatures of between 0.5 and 1 ° C above the levels recorded for the middle of the 21st century. Ideally, minimum temperatures are expected to drop from the mid-21st century to the end of the 21st century for most areas of the Sultanate. Some areas in the interior of the Sultanate are even expected to experience a minimum temperature drop of up to 1.5 ° C.

Future changes in average precipitation rate

“The variation in average annual precipitation shows different results in light of expected climate changes. Ideally, the variation in annual precipitation is expected to be between 0 and 10 mm per year in most areas. In the worst case, average annual precipitation will decrease by up to 10 mm / year in most areas. Only the regions close to the southwest and east coasts experience an additional change of 0 to 10 mm / year, ”said Professor Al Sharaabi.

By the end of the 21st century, the average annual precipitation will have changed dramatically across the Sultanate. Ideally, average annual precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 10 mm per year in the interior regions south of the Hajar Mountains, while average annual precipitation remains the same as in the middle of the 21st century. or a slight increase in the Hajar Mountains region.

In the worst-case scenario, average annual precipitation in most areas will decrease by up to 10 mm per year, from mid-21st century levels, but in parts of Dhofar Governorate only, annual precipitation The averages remain the same as they were in the middle of the 21st century, while the average annual precipitation remains the same as in the middle of the century or with a slight increase in specific parts of Dhofar Governorate only.